Climate Change Impacts

- Regional Climate Projections: Asia is supposed to warm up. The summer heat waves and hot spells are going to be longer, hotter, and happen more often. More precipitation will happen everywhere in Asia except central Asia and also more rainstorms might happen over Southern and Eastern Asia. With the increase in precipitation which might lead to more rainstorms, the monsoon and tropical storms are going to be weakened over southern-eastern Asia. These projected climate changes are at best a guess because of how complex Asia’s geography is and also how some countries in Asia are so close to the sea we don’t know how it is going to affect the climate change over time. (Source: Projected Climate Change)

- Monsoons and tropical storms usually drop because of global warming. This is because since global warming increases the temperature which means less moisture. Since there is less moisture in the air it messes with the cooling and warming equilibrium that happens in the monsoonal and tropical areas of Asia. There is also another consensus that says that the moisture would increase in a warmer area which would overcome the equilibrium which would lead to an increase in monsoons. (Source: Key Processes)

- Key Factors: A key factor is ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) because since we do not know how the ocean will react in the coming years, scientists cannot predict how much temperature, precipitation, or anything else will react. Other little key factors are aerosols and vegetation cover (the amount of soil covered by vegetation). ENSO influences heavy rainfall and also typhoons that could be very bad for eastern Asia so any modification or changes to rainfall in the Pacific could be very bad for Korea, Japan, and eastern Asia. (Source: Key Processes)

- East Asia: The precipitation that scientists have right now are way lower than what is happening right now. The precipitation is greater that what the scientists have perceived. There is about 50% more precipitation than what is perceived and it is associated with the extra tropical rain that came from southern Asia. (Source: East Asia)

Temperature:

This is a graph of temperature anamolies.
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-11-8.html

This is a graph of the temperature anomalies.
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-1-2.html#table-11-1

- As seen from the graph the best case scenario would be a warming of 2°C but the worst case scenario would be around 4.25°C.

- Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Glaciers are supposed to melt in the Himalayas which means flooding since there is more water. Since glaciers are melting they recede which is going to affect river flows. With the increase in water there is going to be danger of flooding to the coastal areas of Asia and also a deficit of freshwater to large water basins in central, south, east and south-east Asia from climate change. Countries are going to continue to develop and an increase in population but since there is going to be a deficit of freshwater it is going to be hard for there countries around 2050. The flooding is going to be contaminating most of the coasts water which means more people are going to get sick and there are going to be more mortality's from contamination of dirty water. The only upside is that crops yielding could increase up to 20% in east and south-east Asia but crops are going to decrease in central and southern Asia. (Source: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability)

- Executive Summary: With the retreat of permafrost and glaciers means an increase in temperature. With the increase in temperature it has been affecting the people and also the crops have declined with the increase in heat. Large freshwater basins are also going to be less and less with an increase in standard of living and also population. Asia could get to the point of starvation in the 2020, 2050 and 2080. Also, river flow is going to decrease because of the receding of the glaciers and flooding is going to increase. With the increase of sea level it is going to mess up the ecosystem and Asia is projected to lose at least 25% of their coral reefs within the next 10 years. With these climate changes Asia might lose some of their fauna and flowers and also forests are going to recede. With the recession and drying of forests Asia is going to prone to more forest fires. These changes are going to stop developing countries in Asia to a halt because of the heating, loss of natural resources, and flooding. Many people are also going to be more prone to cholera since flooding is going to contaminate the water and less freshwater is going to be available. (Source: Executive Summary)

- Most Interesting Threat: The most interesting threat is going to be the ocean because it is so vital to helping asian countries but it can be so detrimental at the same time. With the increase in sea level people are going to lose homes and lives from flooding. Since sea level is increasing means less river flow and people are going to have to rely on the large water basins that feeds everyone fresh water. With fresh water decreasing people are going to start going towards dirty water and people are going to get sick and die from cholera. The increase in temperature means that people are going to be drinking more water since of the humidity and hot flashes but it also means that crops are going to be lost. In general, with the population that Asia has many people could die if all these things happen just from the earth warming.